The Lounge

[Colum]

I preferred looking at the table at the start of the season. Naming us “AFC” Wimbledon was a master stroke. Until we play in the same division as AFC Bournemouth at least 🙂

[Windlesham Don]

Tomorrow sees a trip to old friends Northampton. Billed by many as a match from which we need to return with something, I feel it is too early for any panic. Having watched every league game so far, I am seeing similar performances to the early part of last season, namely some good passages of play marred by sloppiness in both boxes.

Those who visited this forum (or read the WDSA newsletter) before Xmas last season may remember me and Bush Womble (I think) banging on about how we were winning the stats battles in most matches and that things would eventually turn. So here are some interesting (or maybe not!) stats from this term:
After 3 games:
Shots For 41 Shots Against 31
On Target For 13 On Target Against 11
Points 0!

Looking at the results of the other promoted clubs:
Northampton W0 D3 L0
Bristol R W1 D0 L2
Oxford U W0 D1 L2
The other clubs have won a single match between them and that was Bristol Rovers beating Oxford! Thus although we have lost all three games (perhaps unluckily from the stats) none of the other promoted clubs have beaten opposition from last season’s League 1 or Championship.

The final stat comes from a website for geeks (so I love it…) Experimental 361 (experimental361.com). Amongst many statistical analyses, for each match the writer attempts to assess a statistical ‘fair score’ based on number and quality of shots (see the website for more details). For our three games the ‘fair scores’ would have been:
Walsall (A) W 1.7 – 1.3
Bolton (H) W 1.2 – 1.0
Scunthorpe (H) D 2.3 – 2.3
Thus, statistically we should have scored 5.2 (we’ve scored 3) and conceded 4.6 (we’ve conceded 7).

So will things turn around, as they did so spectacularly last season? We shall see, but the worry is that the players lose belief in themselves if we continue to lose – it is one thing retaining belief whilst in mid-table, it is quite different if the losses start to pile up and we are languishing at the bottom.

In my opinion the next few games are vital, for maintaining belief as much as anything.

COYD!

[onyadon]

Thanks for that excellent analysis Windlesham, it just shows how difficult the move up a league can be, but I stress it’s early days in the season.
Now for a good test for the Dons. Off to Northampton Town against whom the Dons have never won in 10 league encounters (2D 3L away). The Cobblers were far and away the best team in L2 last season and justifiable champions, but they have a new manager, some team changes and three draws in their first three L1 outings.
Every game will be tough for Wimbledon, but it will be interesting how the Dons measure up against a fellow promoted side so early in the season.
One thing to take note is that despite the defeats, Wimbledon have been in the contest: only for defensive lapses and a failure to take scoring chances (and hearteningly there have been plenty of those, so they are getting themselves into good attacking positions, and that’s a positive).
Windlesham is right about confidence eating away with losses and it will be a relief if the Dons can get off the mark at Northampton, but to do that they’ll have to do more things right than wrong and looking for a more consistent all-round performance. Jon Meades is nearing a return and he will be important to have back in the defence.

[liamwimbo]

Been a tough start for the Dons so far. At least, we know roughly what to expect from tonight’s game, even it is a bunch of big, ugly brutes. The key will be limiting the opposition to no more than one goal. This fixture has a history of 1-1 scorelines and no doubt most of us would be satisfied with that tonight.

[Singapore Don]

Thanks Windlesham for the stats. Ardley said at the recent Meet the Manager session that based on stats we would have been second in the table at Christmas last season; but of course the only stats that really matter are the goals for and against columns. Hopefully with a bit of luck (which we’ve not had), a tightening of our defence and being more clinical up front, we’ll convert these current positive non-goal stats accordingly. We certainly don’t want to leave it too long and get cast adrift at the bottom of the table by Christmas this season. We desperately need our first League One point(s), and today really could be the day to do it. Bolton defied the stats when they came to KM by beating us after 495 days without an away win; let’s do the same ourselves at Northampton and bring an end to their 27 home match run without a defeat.

Unfortunately I can’t make today’s game, though really wish I could. I’m hosting the big family summer BBQ, can you believe it on the crappiest day for weather this summer: heavy rain and strong winds are forecast all day from late morning just when everyone will be arriving. Grrr. Just hope the Dons will deliver me some much needed sunshine of a different kind.

As for the game, I really think and hope that Neal goes for it from the outset, and starts with an attacking 4-3-3 formation. We were so much stronger any more impressive on Tuesday night against Scunthorpe playing this formation, rather than the 4-4-2 of the first half which saw us exposed and exploited across the field. We’ve got really big lads up front, with real threat, let’s use them early doors and throw everything at the Cobblers from the go. I want to see Parrett starting in midfield, to use his natural attacking instinct, prowess and skill to support and feed the strikers – we want Northampton to feel that they don’t know what’s hit them before they have time to settle. Attack, attack, attack! Come on you Dons!

[martindownunderdon]

Ithink today we will start our campaign wether it will be 1 point or 3. We just need that bit of luck and we will be ok.

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